HitLegend
Methodology · published · as of 2026-09-20

How HitLegend
makes its numbers.

Every value, confidence score, completion figure and Legend is produced by a versioned method. This page is that method. When a method changes, its version changes — history is never silently rewritten.

Methods in force
HitValue
hitsignal-v1:trimmed-mean/last10-6mo/decay14d/trim15
Your Legend
legend-v1
Rarity
rarity-tiers-v1
Snapshots
shelf-snapshot-v1
01

The HitValue engine

hitsignal-v1:trimmed-mean/last10-6mo/decay14d/trim15

A card's value is read per printing and per condition or grade, never averaged across them. Where a source gives us raw sales, we take the last 10 within 6 months, drop the top and bottom 15%, and weight recent sales more (a sale two weeks old counts half). Where a source gives us a computed price, we take that number as theirs and add confidence, provenance and segmentation.

  1. 1
    Sales in
    completed sales
    per printing
  2. 2
    Segment
    5 splits
    never averaged together
  3. 3
    Window
    last 10
    within 6 months
  4. 4
    Trim
    ±15%
    outliers dropped
  5. 5
    Weight
    14-day half-life
    recent counts more
  6. 6
    HitValue
    value + confidence
    with provenance
Never averaged together
graded vs raweach grade separatelymarket (US only at launch)sale vs ask — asks are shown live and never enter the valueauction vs fixed price
02

A worked example

illustration

Twelve sales of one card, one condition. The engine keeps the last 10 inside 6 months, drops the top and bottom 15%, and weights the rest by age — a sale 14 days old counts half as much as one today.

window · last 10 in 6 moHitValue $47.23today60d ago120d ago180d ago
Sales seen
12
In the window
10
Trimmed
2
HitValue
$47.23
counted — bigger is more recenttrimmed as an outlieroutside the window
03

Confidence

Every value carries a score from one to five. It is how much the number deserves your trust — how many sales, how recent, how much they agree. At one we stop pretending and show a range.

  1. 5a sale within the last two weeks, adequate sample, tight spread
  2. 4recent sales, reasonable sample
  3. 3sales within the window, thin sample or wide spread
  4. 2stale or very thin — a point estimate is becoming dishonest
  5. 1a comparable-based estimate or a single old sale: we show a range, not a number
04

Provenance

Every stored value carries its source, licence, basis (sale or estimate), sample size, as-of time and this version string.

Our series begins the day we started collecting for a card; no backfill exists. Movers and one-year ranges come from the source's own statistics from day one.

completed sales from major marketplaces (sports) — our estimator runs on the raw sales
per-condition market prices (trading card games)
auction results (sports; short-term cache only)
Every stored value
example
{
  value: 47.62,
  condition: "NEAR_MINT",
  grade: null,
  basis: "SALE",
  sampleSize: 8,
  confidence: 4,
  source: "completed-sales",
  licence: "display",
  asOf: "2026-09-20T06:00:00Z",
  method: "hitsignal-v1",
}
05

Every other number

Your Legend

legend-v1

Your Legend is one card, not simply the priciest: value (45%), scarcity (25% — serial numbering, print run, rarity tier, a gem grade) and significance (30% — the oldest card you own if it is at least 15 years old, the one you have held longest if over three years, a high-confidence value). It changes only on a genuine change.

45% value25% scarcity30% significance

Completion

A set or run is a rule over the catalogue. Progress counts distinct printings (master), distinct cards (base — any printing counts) or an explicit list. The weighted score gives each card a weight of 1–10 by its value rank among the set; raw cards count exactly like graded ones. Cost to complete is the sum of the missing cards' near-mint values and is withheld while any missing card is unpriced.

master · every printingbase · any printinglist · explicitweight 1–10 by value rank

Identification

Cards are identified from your photograph: a detector finds each card, a vision model reads what is printed on it, and a catalogue lookup or a specialist identification service settles the exact card. Anything below our confidence bar goes to your review queue — a wrong card is never filed silently. Rows we build ourselves come only from facts printed on your card.

  1. detect
  2. read
  3. catalogue
  4. review queue

Rarity

rarity-tiers-v1

Native rarity labels are kept as printed and also mapped to one coarse cross-game scale: common, uncommon, rare, ultra rare, secret rare, unknown.

commonuncommonrareultra raresecret rareunknown

Totals

shelf-snapshot-v1

A binder or a shelf is the sum of its copies at their own condition and grade. A copy counts once per shelf however many binders hold it. Confidence is not averaged: we show how much of the value comes from high-confidence estimates.

Cost basis

Cost basis and profit come only from acquisition prices you entered. We say how many of your cards are costed.

06

What we do not claim

  • No price history before the day we started collecting for a card.
  • One market (US) at launch.
  • Population data is not yet an input.
  • Sealed product is not yet valued.